With the La Niña now old news the story of the last fortnight is the cooling of the eastern Indian Ocean, bringing the IOD back more towards neutral, which is unlikely to affect the climate to years end. The SAM is a key ingredient for moisture into NSW and Qld, and this is not behaving as models predicted. Normally the SAM follows suit into wetter or positive phase, but the last few months only gets a rush and retreats back to neutral or negative phase. One to watch this harvest for sure.

What to know about the climate drivers and how they are measured? Click here